We are broadly looking at a future crisis situation with widely overwhelmed American hospitals, new large American lockdowns and things like that
Basic
9
Ṁ618
Jun 23
20%
chance
#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7 The data in the UK and Ontario, and the data now coming in from various American cities, and the CDC nowcast, all point in the direction that this is happening fast. There’s no sign of a robust policy response anywhere, so maybe we really will let it burn, but I have no idea how we actually do it. Then again, I have no idea how we do another set of lockdowns. Something has to give. I notice that I don’t expect to do indoor dining (or, given the winter, much dining out at all) for much longer, but will it go further than that? I notice increasingly that I don’t have a good handle on how to think about the policy response that we’ll actually get because neither do any of the policymakers. I don’t think they’re thinking about it much at all. Update Dec 20, 5:39pm: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/20/omicron-post-8 The hospitals are at capacity now, but the early promising signs (or more exactly, the lack of signs of either panic or truly horizontal lines) makes me somewhat less concerned that we’ll be unable to handle things. So I’m mildly more optimistic that we’ll ‘get away with it.’ #Covid #Omicron
#Covid
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Ṁ1,000
and
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