"Will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines in 2023?"
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Ṁ80Dec 31
44%
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This question will resolve positive if in the opinion of the judges the scientific consensus is that getting all currently-recommended vaccines, including the two original vaccines and the Omicron booster, decreases risk of the new variant by less than 50%.
This is question #43 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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